if I go over the max speed limit, what is the chance of getting a ticket?

You cannot calculate the exact chances of being caught for speeding, because there is no fixed formula. It depends on where you are, the time of day, traffic volume, road conditions, how much over the limit you are, whether police are actively doing enforcement, whether there are speed cameras, whether there are complaints in the area, and sometimes plain old luck. That said, your risk is not the same at every speed. Someone driving 5 or 10 percent over the speed limit is generally less likely to attract attention than someone driving 15, 20, or 30 percent over. The faster you go, the more obvious your speed becomes, the less it blends into surrounding traffic, and the more likely it is that a police officer, speed camera, or enforcement team will notice it. At a certain point, you stop looking like someone who is slightly over the limit and start looking like the person who needs to be stopped. But that does not mean there is a “safe” amount over the limit. You could be the only vehicle an officer sees. You could be the fastest vehicle in the pack. You could be in a school zone, community safety zone, construction zone, residential area, or a place where police have received complaints. You could also pass a speed camera or an officer running radar at exactly the wrong moment. That is why two people can do the same speed on different days and have very different outcomes. The real answer is this: the more you speed, the more you increase your odds of being stopped, charged, fined, getting demerit points, affecting your insurance, or worse, being involved in a collision. You may not get caught every time. You may not get caught most of the time. But you only need to get caught once for it to become expensive, inconvenient, and possibly serious. So while I cannot tell you the exact odds, I can tell you the pattern. A little over the limit is usually less likely to draw attention than a lot over the limit, but there is no guaranteed buffer, no magic number, and no promise that “just a little over” will be ignored. The better question is not “What are the chances of getting caught?” The better question is, “Is it worth the risk?”